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Week 22, 2026: graded AI verdicts

37 of the 69 tracked markets that resolved in week 22 (2026-05-25 – 2026-05-31) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 17 of 28; 9 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 80 of 127 BUY verdicts hit (63%), ROI -14.6% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.

17 / 28
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (61%) · 9 HOLD, no entry
-4.4%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (28 calls, −$1,228 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-05-25 – 2026-05-31

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?2026-05-31
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?2026-05-31
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 62¢ · −$1,000
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?2026-05-31
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 56¢ · −$1,000
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open?2026-05-31
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 28¢ · −$1,000
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?2026-05-31
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?2026-05-31
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?2026-05-31
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 42¢ · −$1,000
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?2026-05-31
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 77¢ · +$299
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?2026-05-30
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 58¢ · +$724
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?2026-05-30
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?2026-05-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 26¢ · +$2,846
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?2026-05-30
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 30¢ · −$1,000
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?2026-05-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 69¢ · +$449
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-05-30
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?2026-05-30
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 13¢ · −$1,000
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?2026-05-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?2026-05-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 77¢ · +$299
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?2026-05-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 64¢ · +$562
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?2026-05-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 80¢ · +$250
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?2026-05-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 60¢ · +$667
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?2026-05-29
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 84¢ · −$1,000
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-05-28
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 37¢ · −$1,000
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League?2026-05-28
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 77¢ · +$299
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open?2026-05-28
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?2026-05-27
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 89¢ · +$124
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?2026-05-27
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 46¢ · −$1,000
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?2026-05-27
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 39¢ · −$1,000
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?2026-05-27
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 61¢ · +$639
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?2026-05-27
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?2026-05-27
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 74¢ · +$351
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?2026-05-27
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 22¢ · −$1,000
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?2026-05-27
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?2026-05-27
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 41¢ · +$1,439
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?2026-05-27
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 73¢ · +$370
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?2026-05-27
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?2026-05-26
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 82¢ · +$220
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?2026-05-26
NO
HOLD · no entry

32 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

80 / 127
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (63%) · 75 HOLD, no entry
-14.6%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (127 calls, −$18,516 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Other32 / 45
Geopolitics17 / 28
Sports17 / 27
Politics14 / 20
Economics0 / 3
Crypto0 / 3
Science0 / 1
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 194 resolved markets without a verdict, 0 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 75 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W22.json.

Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.