Week 45, 2026: graded AI verdicts
Week 2026-W45 (2026-11-02 to 2026-11-08). Tracked markets resolved this week: 94, of which 86 had an AI verdict frozen before the close; the rest are not graded. BUY verdicts this week: 48 of 68 hit the outcome; 18 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative: 338 of 474 BUY verdicts hit (71%), ROI +1.1% with $1,000 on each call held to resolution, 239 HOLD not counted, 106 BUY verdicts still open.
48 / 68
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (71%) · 18 HOLD, no entry
+10.8%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (68 calls, +$7,358 total)
Verdicts resolved 2026-11-02 – 2026-11-08
Market
Outcome
AI verdict
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 88¢ · −$1,000
NO
HOLD · no entry
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 60¢ · +$667
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 62¢ · +$613
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 85¢ · +$176
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 44¢ · −$1,000
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 55¢ · +$818
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 10¢ · −$1,000
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 85¢ · −$1,000
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 84¢ · −$1,000
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 86¢ · +$163
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 67¢ · −$1,000
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 76¢ · +$316
8 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.
Cumulative record
338 / 474
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (71%) · 239 HOLD, no entry
+1.1%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (474 calls, +$5,187 total)
106 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.
| Category | BUY verdicts hit |
|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 104 / 135 |
| Other | 96 / 129 |
| Politics | 85 / 122 |
| Sports | 25 / 40 |
| Economics | 18 / 29 |
| Crypto | 9 / 17 |
| Science | 1 / 2 |
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 842 resolved markets without a verdict, 8 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 239 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W45.json.
Generated 2026-11-09 07:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.