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Week 18, 2026: graded AI verdicts

64 of the 86 tracked markets that resolved in week 18 (2026-04-27 – 2026-05-03) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 21 of 38; 26 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 28 of 47 BUY verdicts hit (60%), ROI -27.6% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed.

21 / 38
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (55%) · 26 HOLD, no entry
-31.3%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (38 calls, −$11,903 total)

Verdicts resolved 2026-04-27 – 2026-05-03

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?2026-05-03
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?2026-05-03
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 12¢ · −$1,000
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?2026-05-03
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?2026-05-03
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 28¢ · −$1,000
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?2026-05-02
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Boston Bruins win the Eastern Conference?2026-05-02
NO
HOLD · no entry
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?2026-05-01
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 30¢ · −$1,000
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?2026-05-01
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 54¢ · +$852
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?2026-05-01
YES
HOLD · no entry
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 5¢ · −$1,000
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 60¢ · −$1,000
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 78¢ · +$282
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 76¢ · +$316
Kash Patel out by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 6¢ · −$1,000
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 76¢ · −$1,000
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 39¢ · −$1,000
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 38¢ · −$1,000
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 71¢ · +$408
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 76¢ · +$316
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 29¢ · −$1,000
Iran leadership change by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 76¢ · −$1,000
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 17¢ · −$1,000
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 46¢ · −$1,000
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?2026-05-01
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 84¢ · +$190
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?2026-04-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 92¢ · +$87
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?2026-04-30
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?2026-04-30
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?2026-04-30
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?2026-04-30
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?2026-04-30
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 87¢ · −$1,000
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?2026-04-30
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?2026-04-30
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 34¢ · −$1,000
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?2026-04-29
NO
HOLD · no entry
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?2026-04-28
YES
HOLD · no entry
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?2026-04-28
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 8¢ · −$1,000
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?2026-04-28
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 47¢ · −$1,000
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?2026-04-28
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 53¢ · +$887

22 other markets resolved this week without an AI verdict on file before the close: not a call, not graded, not listed.

Cumulative record

28 / 47
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (60%) · 37 HOLD, no entry
-27.6%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (47 calls, −$12,978 total)

108 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

CategoryBUY verdicts hit
Geopolitics6 / 13
Other10 / 12
Politics7 / 11
Sports5 / 7
Crypto0 / 3
Economics0 / 1
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data. Not listed to date: 101 resolved markets without a verdict, 0 invalid/unknown outcomes, 0 verdicts recorded after the close; 37 HOLD verdicts shown but not graded. Raw data: 2026-W18.json.

Generated 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC. Verdicts are frozen when published and never recomputed.